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Announcement - The RIO Model

Hector McNeill1

An online model is under construction to illustrate Real Incomes Objective theory in simulated policy formats (scenarios).

Besides providing account of supply side activities it has the new Real Money Theory structure and the 8 encapsulated asset market dynamics embedded in order to illustrate the impact of monetary policies such as QE.


The first theoretical models were created in 1968 for multi-factor economic models and biomass production linked to natural resources conditions. These models were transferred and tested in a DEC computer at the National Commission for Space Activities in São Jose dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil in 1969.

The first Real Incomes Approach models were very simple and in 1976 were hand plotted from formulae using a calculator!!

The first new generation computer-based model was constructed in 1990 known as the CRESTFILM model supported by the Manpower services Commission of the UK government, this was a multifactor decision analysis model and the name an acronym for the main functional components:

  • Capital equipment
  • Resource
  • Energy
  • Space
  • Time
  • Finance
  • Information
  • Location
  • Manpower

In order to run CRESTFILM is a personal computer, it was necessary to make use of dynamic link libraries provided by Niels Jensen, who had been the technical director and one of the founders of Borland. He had left Borland following disagrements with Kahn. Use was also made of Jesen's compilers which, at the time generated the smallest *.exes in the market. Even better than Microsoft.

This program was the first decision analysis support system to apply the emerging methodologies of locational-state theory in a section that embedded learning curve cost projections.

In 1983 SEEL-Systems Engineering Economics Lab was establshed to trace all global network technologies and applications (starting with the Internet). In 1986 SEEL purchased all of the main output of the Decision Analysis Group of the Stanford Research Institute (Menlo Park) and this created the foundation for 35 years of work on decision analysis models.

Since 2000, server side JavaScript was introduced as the main workhorse to create a large family of specialised models linked to economic investment, traceability, consignment tracing and emulation of locational-states linked to the environment and food production.

As a result of the Decision Analysis initiative of the George Boole Foundation, the largest program so far was the Navatec system as an investment project cycle system to support sustainable development. And then, since 2015 this was used as the foundation of the development of SDGToolkit to support Agenda 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.

Over the last 30 years work has often been seriously disrupted by third party suppliers failing and/or licensing becoming increasingly expensive. In April, 2020 all software production at SEEL was moved inhouse and no use is made of third party and proprietary systems in order to ensure continuity of development. All systems follow design procedures based on the SEEL-OQSI Data Reference Models to speed up design and implementation through open source systems

RIO model

The Real Incomes Objective Model should be operational within 30 working days from today 26 February, 2021. The first projections will repeat simulations of QE impacts made early last year but including very generic market segments. The evolution of analysis of the Quantity Theory of Money and its replacement by the Real Money Theory can facilitate the tracing of inflation from assets markets into the supply side costs.

1 Hector McNeill is the Director of SEEL-Systems Engineering Economics Lab.

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